Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1906Z from Region 2320 (S12E16). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Apr,
08 Apr, 09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached 606 km/s at
05/2137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 333 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 126
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 125/125/130
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  007/018-007/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/35
Radio Events Observed 06 Apr 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0035   0035    130          0035        0000  
1847   1852    430          1849        0005  
1914   1915    110          1915        0001  
1923   1924    140          1923        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

 

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales