Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
16/0907Z from Region 2324 (N18E34). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 720 km/s at 16/2049Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/0503Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0524Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2108
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 150
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 150/155/155
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  025/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  016/020-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/30/25
Radio Events Observed 16 Apr 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0729   0729    390          0729        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
 
For current space weather conditions please refer to:

www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales