Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/1007Z from Region 2322 (just beyond west limb). There are currently 8
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
555 km/s at 22/2319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2210Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/2138Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 955 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days (24-26
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 141
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  007/008-009/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/20
Radio Events Observed 23 Apr 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1722   1722    110          1722        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:

www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales