FILE - In this June 25, 1998 file photo, a Caltrans bulldozer
terraces a sliding hillside below the condemned home above Pacific
Coast Highway near Las Flores Canyon Road in Malibu, Calif. The home
and at least one other at the top of the slide was scheduled for
demolition. Federal meteorologists said Thursday that the current El
Nino is already the second strongest on record for this time of year
and could go down as one of the most potent weather changers of the
past 65 years. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration
recorded unusual warmth in the Pacific Ocean the last three months.
El Nino is a heating of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather
worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter. (AP
Photo/Reed Saxon, File)
WASHINGTON (AP) — The current El Nino, nicknamed Bruce Lee,
is already the second strongest on record for this time of year
and could be one of the most potent weather changers of the past
65 years, federal meteorologists say.
But California and other drought struck areas better not
count on El Nino rescuing them like in a Bruce Lee action movie,
experts say.
"A big El Nino guarantees nothing," said Mike Halpert, deputy
director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's
Climate Prediction Center. "At this point there's no cause for
rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day."
Every few years, the winds shift and the water in the Pacific
Ocean gets warmer than usual. The resulting El Nino (ehl
NEEN'-yoh) changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the
United States in winter.
In addition to California, El Nino often brings heavy winter
rain to much of the southern and eastern U.S.
It's also likely to make the northern winters warmer and
southeastern U.S. winters a bit cooler, but not much, Halpert
said. The middle of the U.S. usually doesn't get too much of an
El Nino effect, he said.
California's state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that
only half the time when there have been big El Ninos has there
been meaningfully heavy rains. The state would need 1½ times its
normal rainfall to get out of this extended drought and that's
unlikely, Halpert said Thursday.
Still, this El Nino is shaping up to be up there with the
record-setters, because of incredible warmth in the key part of
the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert said. He said the
current El Nino likely will rival ones in 1997-1998, 1982-83 and
1972-73.
NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert said satellite measurements
show this El Nino to be currently more powerful than 1997-98,
which often is thought of as the king. But that one started
weaker and finished stronger, he said.
This El Nino is so strong a NOAA blog unofficially named it
the "Bruce Lee" of El Ninos after the late movie action hero.
The California-based Patzert, who points out that mudslides and
other mayhem happens, compares it to Godzilla.
Economic studies favor the hero theme, showing that El Ninos
tend to benefit the United States. Droughts and Atlantic
hurricanes are reduced. California mudslides notwithstanding,
the U.S. economy benefited by nearly $22 billion from that
1997-98 El Nino, according to a study.
El Nino does tend to cause problems elsewhere in the world.
And while El Nino often puts a big damper on the Atlantic
hurricane season, that means more storms in the Pacific, such as
Hawaii, Halpert said. So far this year, tropical cyclone
activity in the Pacific is far higher than normal.
___
Online:
NOAA's El Nino page:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
NASA's El Nino page:
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino2015/index.html
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Seth Borenstein can be followed at
http://twitter.com/borenbears