Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 582 km/s at 10/0516Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1559 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug). III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Aug 106 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 113 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 15/10/15 Radio Events Observed 10 Aug 2015 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0300 0301 120 0300 0001 1353 1353 130 1353 0000 1529 1529 120 1529 0000 1629 1629 110 1629 0000 1646 1646 130 1646 0000 1706 1706 110 1706 0000 2032 2032 110 2032 0000 2315 2315 150 2315 0000 0044 0044 100 0044 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed. **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For August 3-9 G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 07 Aug, No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts were observed. No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms were observed. Outlook For August 10-16 G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10 Aug. No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected during the outlook period. No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected during the outlook period. www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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