Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
24/0733Z from Region 2403 (S15W18). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 Aug,
26 Aug) and likely to be moderate on day three (27 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
590 km/s at 23/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/1720Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/0655Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1700 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Aug). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two
(25 Aug, 26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    65/60/55
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 128
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  023/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  011/016-008/012-016/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor Storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/30/45

Radio Events Observed 24 Aug 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0000   0000    110          0000        0000  
0003   0008    660          0007        0005  
0301   0301    550          0301        0000  
0304   0306    250          0305        0002  
0310   0315    510          0312        0005  
0434   0435    170          0434        0001  
0509   0512    5100         0511        0003  
0540   0540    170          0540        0000  
0544   0544    200          0544        0000  
0619   0620    2300         0619        0001  
0711   0714    260          0712        0003  
0718   0718    230          0718        0000  
0726   0734    6900         0731        0008  
0910   0911    9100         0910        0001  
0924   0924    330          0924        0000  
1017   1020    1800         1017        0003  
1108   1108    280          1108        0000  
1111   1113    140          1113        0002  
1202   1204    1200         1203        0002  
1451   1452    1000         1451        0001  
1638   1638    110          1638        0000  
1649   1649    140          1649        0000  
1707   1707    110          1707        0000  
1855   1855    2000         1855        0000  
2026   2026    100          2026        0000  
2129   2129    150          2129        0000  
2146   2146    140          2146        0000  
2211   2211    110          2211        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0505   0628    480          0505