Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1706Z from Region 2458 (N09W36). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec,
02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 581 km/s at 30/0914Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 30/0804Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 30/0817Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 096
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  019/022-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/10