Report of Solar Geophysical Activity


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0628Z from Region 2458 (N09W79). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at
03/0255Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/1805Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1537 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 095
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 095/090/090
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  007/008-007/008-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/45
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 2280 Begin Time: 2015 Dec 02 1610 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1538 pfu

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