Report of Solar Geophysical Activity


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0419Z from Region 2465 (S05E58). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Dec) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 711 km/s at 07/1700Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/1047Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0649Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3587
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (08 Dec, 10
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 101
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  026/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  016/020-014/014-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor Storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/50

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For November 30-December 6 Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 30 November and 06 December due to influence of two separate coronal hole high speed stream events. Outlook For December 7-13 Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 07 and 08 December as influence from a positive polarity coronal hole persists.

For current space weather conditions please refer to: