Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0419Z from Region 2465 (S05E58). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Dec) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 711 km/s at 07/1700Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/1047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3587 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (08 Dec, 10 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec). III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec Class M 05/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Dec 101 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 106 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 026/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 015/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 016/020-014/014-014/016 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/35 Minor Storm 15/10/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/40/50
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For November 30-December 6 Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 30 November and 06 December due to influence of two separate coronal hole high speed stream events. Outlook For December 7-13 Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 07 and 08 December as influence from a positive polarity coronal hole persists.