Report of Solar Geophysical Activity


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0014Z from Region 2469 (N18E42). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Dec,
16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 540 km/s at 14/2100Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/1719Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/1524Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26580
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Dec), unsettled
to active levels on day two (16 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 124
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  019/024-015/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/35/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/25

Summary For December 7-13

G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storms were observed on 10 Dec.

No Radio Blackouts were observed.

No Solar Radiation Storms were observed.

Outlook For December 14-20

G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storms are likely on 16 Dec.

No Radio Blackouts are expected

No Solar Radiation Storms are expected.
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2288
Begin Time: 2015 Dec 07 0945 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8709 pfu
For current space weather conditions please refer to: