Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/0014Z from Region 2469 (N18E42). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at 14/2100Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/1719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26580 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (16 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Dec). III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec Class M 15/15/15 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Dec 124 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 108 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 014/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 019/024-015/018-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/15 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 25/35/30 Major-severe storm 60/40/25
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For December 7-13 G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storms were observed on 10 Dec. No Radio Blackouts were observed. No Solar Radiation Storms were observed. Outlook For December 14-20 G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storms are likely on 16 Dec. No Radio Blackouts are expected No Solar Radiation Storms are expected.
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Continuation of Serial Number: 2288 Begin Time: 2015 Dec 07 0945 UTC Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8709 pfu