Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
05/0953Z from Region 2277 (S08W32). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
454 km/s at 04/2217Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1640Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1318Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10953 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 142
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  007/010-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2152
Begin Time: 2015 Feb 03 1305 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 7431 pfu