Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 09/0607Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 565 km/s at 08/2321Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 530 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (12 Feb). III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Feb 146 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/20 Radio Events Observed 09 Feb 2015 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 2317 2332 480 2327 0015 2337 2337 100 2337 0000 2334 2334 110 2334 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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