Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
12/0212Z from Region 2280 (S06W81). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (13 Feb) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (14 Feb,
15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 399 km/s at
11/2229Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1027Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    25/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 128
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 120/125/130
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  008/008-008/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at