Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/2208Z from Region 2282 (N11W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb,
21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
462 km/s at 19/0626Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2220Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0140Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 401 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 119
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 120/120/125
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/40