Report of Solar Geophysical ActivityJoint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/0026Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 23/2023Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/1332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/1049Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb). III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Feb 117 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/20 SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #15-8
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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