Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/1948Z from Region 2256 (S08W48). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan,
05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 02/0923Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/1510Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/1725Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2019 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (03 Jan, 05
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 146
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 145/145/150
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  012/015-011/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/40