Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1013Z from Region 2259 (S16W74). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 19/0922Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2055Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan). III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jan 130 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 157 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 007/008-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/25 **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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