Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/1653Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan,
29 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
406 km/s at 26/0746Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 26/0802Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 26/0802Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (28 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three
(29 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 147
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  012/015-008/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           15/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/40

Radio Events Observed 26 Jan 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0501   0501    330          0501        0000  
1332   1332    120          1332        0000  
2125   2125    440          2125        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.