Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
29/1142Z from Region 2268 (S10W17). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
443 km/s at 28/2146Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/1915Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 29/1809Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 228 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Jan, 31
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Feb). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 165
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 170/170/170
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  012/015-012/015-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/45

Radio Events Observed 29 Jan 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0335   0335    130          0335        0000  
0453   0453    110          0453        0000  
0522   0522    110          0522        0000  
1057   1057    120          1057        0000  
1329   1329    160          1329        0000  
1527   1527    110          1527        0000  
2126   2127    400          2127        0001  
2347   2347    290          2347        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1421   1606    140          1527