New York (Platts)--30Dec2014/259 pm EST/1959 GMT

It may be too soon to assess the total impact of falling global crude oil prices on the US oil patch, but the lower price will likely slow the recent fast pace of pipeline buildouts and focus attention on regions where the production plays are most economic.

Many oil industry analysts expect to see a slowdown in new midstream projects as production begins to wane, which is expected by the middle of 2015 as drilling slows and many of the hedges producers put in place to manage price risk expire.

"In the midstream, in general, there will be some slowdown," said John Hill, CEO of First Reserve, a global private equity investment firm exclusively focused on energy.

Reductions in producer capital spending point to slowed drilling going forward, he said. But he notes there will be an "awful lot of Bakken" coming online from current drilling, and that no producer there has cut production, despite a slowdown in 2015 spending from big producers like Continental Resources.

Rather, Hill expects explorers will be "very selective" in where they drill, looking to "pick the most economic" spot and "reallocate based on the rate of return," which in turn will slow the flow of crude from some plays.

The slowing of future crude production will stifle the growth of new infrastructure projects in both pipeline and rail, but some shale oil plays will stay economic, Hill said.

He sees viable basins which show promising rates of returns, including the Permian and Eagle Ford due to their proximity to Gulf Coast refining heft as well as the Bakken where there is enough infrastructure already in place to carry the crude to refiners via rail and, to a lesser extent, pipeline.

Hill said there are good parts of these basins, such as the Permian's Delaware Basin and Wolfcamp plays, which are viable at $40-50/barrel.

The general consensus is that the Permian Basin, one of the oldest and most prolific oil-producing basins located in west Texas and eastern New Mexico rejuvenated by new horizontal drilling techniques, will continue to be an active production area.

"Many large Permian producers that have announced drilling plans for 2015 have indicated that they still intend to grow production in the basin, especially in the Delaware Basin, where Bentek expects producers can still realize a 27% internal rate of return on new wells at $60/b oil prices," said Nicole Leonard, energy analyst with Platts unit Bentek Energy.

Current Permian Basin takeaway pipeline capacity is 1.2 million b/d, with an additional 780,000 b/d due in the next six months, according to data from Platts and Bentek.

Bentek estimates the Permian currently produces about 1.84 million b/d of oil, and that is expected to rise to about 2.36 million b/d by 2019.

Marginal plays could include some parts of the Niobrara and Powder River Basin in the Rockies region as well as the Mississippi Lime, straddling the borders of Kansas and Oklahoma, where lack of infrastructure, regional refinery demand and harsh conditions make it difficult to produce.

However, some think the pipeline buildout is slowing simply due to reaching a saturation point.

"The industry has done a great job responding to the production growth and the pipeline capacity needed to move that supply to the refining sector," Bentek's Anthony Starkey said. "We imagine there will be less growth in infrastructure going forward, simply due to a decreasing need for more capacity."

--Janet McGurty, janet.mcgurty@platts.com --Edited by Jason Lindquist, jason.lindquist@platts.com

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