A lot can happen in 35 years: Where will energy be?

July 17, 2015 | By Jaclyn Brandt

A lot has happened in the energy industry in 35 years -- and it's possible even more may happen in the next 35 years. As technology changes, energy efficiency should increase.

Credit: Diliff/Wikimedia Commons

The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) is celebrating 35 years in business, and decided to go back and look at the last 35 years of energy -- as well as what might be possible in the next 35 years.

"We find that the energy intensity of the U.S. economy has steadily improved since 1980, with the majority of this improvement due to energy efficiency. Each of the major sectors has shown gains," ACEEE said. "Many factors have driven these efficiency improvements, including market forces, policy impacts and the interplay between the two. On the other hand, energy prices have not been a major driver, since energy prices today are either similar to or less than 1980 prices after the effect of inflation is removed."

From 1980 to 2014, U.S. energy use increased by 26 percent, and the report found that around 40 percent of the improvement in energy intensity was due to structural shifts, and 60 percent was due to efficiency improvements.

ACEEE said there are still many energy-efficiency opportunities that can be pursued by 2050 that can reduce energy use by 40 to 60 percent lower than current forecasts.

"In 2014 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions totaled 5,404 million metric tons (MMT), 10 percent below 2005 levels," the report said. "Energy efficiency plays a large and critical role in US government plans to reduce 2020 emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels."

There are many things, both large and small, that have happened in the last 35 years -- including improvements to equipment, new and existing buildings, industrial processes, vehicles, airplanes, and the electric grid.

Some examples of changes in energy efficiency in the last 35 years include: the energy use of new clothes washers has declined by more than 70 percent; the energy use of new homes per square foot has declined by nearly 20 percent; industrial energy use per unit value of product is down by nearly 40 percent; the fuel economy of passenger vehicles has improved by more than 25 percent; and energy losses in our electric transmission and distribution system have declined by more than 25 percent.

Despite the progress, ACEEE is looking to the next 35 years for even more progress. With the goal of reducing energy use by 40 to 60 percent, relative to current forecasts, by 2050, the organization has some tips, including:

Better systems integration intelligent efficiency, like the use of sensors, controls, big data, and computer chips to monitor and control energy use in real time.
Improvements to the many types of equipment (such as computers, televisions, and elevators) that collectively account for growing miscellaneous energy loads.
Evolution of building design to yield zero net energy and ultra-low-energy buildings.
Industrial process improvements.
Taking building energy retrofits to a much higher level, including more widespread and deeper retrofits for larger savings per building.
Better efficiency of the electric grid through expanded use of combined heat and power systems, greater power plant efficiency, reduced transmission and distribution losses, expanded use of other distributed generation resources, and improved grid control and integration.
Promotion of sustainable development and transportation patterns.
Initiatives to change wasteful energy-using behaviors among consumers and businesses.

To achieve these goals, ACEEE understands it must be done through different pathways, but most specifically by harnessing and transforming markets; making efficiency a key strategy for the utility of the future; and expanding federal, state, and local policy efforts.

"In order to realize these energy-saving opportunities we need to harness and transform markets, make efficiency a key strategy for the utility of the future and expand federal, state, and local policy efforts," ACEEE said.

For more:
- download the report

http://www.fierceenergy.com/story/lot-can-happen-35-years-where-will-energy-be/2015-07-17