Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/2040Z from Region 2381 (N14E31). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
573 km/s at 05/2139Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/0018Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0037Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 440 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 133
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  016/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20

Radio Events Observed 06 Jul 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1127   1127    130          1127        0000  
1747   1747    110          1747        0000  
1836   1836    110          1836        0000  
2018   2019    380          2018        0001  
2131   2133    140          2133        0002  
2212   2212    710          2212        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.