Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0337Z from Region 2381 (N14W11). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul,
11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 09/1636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1805Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1813Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1226 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jul), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 122
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  009/012-017/025-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/55/50

Radio Events Observed 09 Jul 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0755   0755    110          0755        0000  
1233   1233    190          1233        0000  
1341   1341    110          1341        0000  
1350   1350    100          1350        0000  
1354   1354    330          1354        0000  
1502   1502    180          1502        0000  
1555   1555    150          1555        0000  
1618   1618    100          1618        0000  
1630   1630    100          1630        0000  
1807   1807    110          1807        0000  
1809   1809    100          1809        0000  
1824   1825    120          1825        0001  
1840   1840    100          1840        0000  
1935   1935    150          1935        0000  
2212   2212    130          2212        0000  
2326   2326    120          2326        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1003   1003    140          1003      

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2210
Begin Time: 2015 Jul 09 1355 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1227 pfu