Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul,
15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 700 km/s at 13/0104Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/0343Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/0545Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 593
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet
levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 110
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  025/041
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  014/018-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/20

Radio Events Observed 13 Jul 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0416   0416    5000         0416        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2015 Jul 14 1315 UTC
Station: GOES13