Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (19 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 621 km/s at 15/2206Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4277 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul). III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jul 100 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 122 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/008-006/008-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 20/20/35 Major-severe storm 20/20/30 Radio Events Observed 16 Jul 2015 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 1858 1858 320 1858 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
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