Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 306 km/s at
20/1939Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1438Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/1056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6019 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 093
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul 095/095/100
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  008/008-006/005-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/45