Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/0947Z from Region 2361 (N16E64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, ranged from about 250 to 310 km/s
during the period. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/0352Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/1408Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 118
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 125/130/135
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  006/005-008/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/30