Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0855Z from Region 2367 (S19E70). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun,
14 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
674 km/s at 11/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0219Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1420Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6029 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (14 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 140
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  015/020-011/015-012/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor Storm           25/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/45/55

adio Events Observed 11 Jun 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0839   0839    100          0839        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.