Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1032Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (16 Jun) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (17 Jun,
18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
633 km/s at 15/0126Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1700Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3307 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (18
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    30/20/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 135
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/120
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  014/018-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/25/10

Radio Events Observed 15 Jun 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0400   0400    150          0400        0000  
0402   0403    1000         0403        0001  
0513   0513    1200         0513        0000  
0552   0552    170          0552        0000  
0552   0552    140          0552        0000  
1348   1348    670          1348        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.