Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 18/1736Z from Region 2371 (N12E39). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 605 km/s at 18/0301Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 18/1445Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1198 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (19 Jun, 20 Jun) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (21 Jun). III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun Class M 70/70/60 Class X 15/15/10 Proton 80/80/60 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jun 151 Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 145/147/148 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 127 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 006/006-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10 Radio Events Observed 18 Jun 2015 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0032 0032 100 0032 0000 0147 0147 100 0147 0000 0238 0238 110 0238 0000 0332 0332 150 0332 0000 0357 0357 280 0357 0000 0426 0426 110 0426 0000 1658 1726 250 1705 0028 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 1658 1724 220 1705 www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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