Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
22/1823Z from Region 2371 (N13W14). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 737 km/s at 22/1830Z. Total IMF reached 42 nT at 22/2000Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -39 nT at 22/1850Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066
pfu at 22/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet
to minor storm levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24
Jun, 25 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     99/99/99
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 135
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun   0NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  035/054
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  024/040-014/020-018/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/45/35
Minor Storm           40/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    90/70/60

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2015 Jun 22 1837 UTC
Deviation: 112 nT
Station: Fredricksburg

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2015 Jun 22 1900 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Radio Events Observed 22 Jun 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0030   0030    110          0030        0000  
0041   0043    160          0041        0002  
0236   0236    650          0236        0000  
0351   0351    100          0351        0000  
0431   0431    110          0431        0000  
0434   0434    100          0434        0000  
0725   0726    260          0726        0001  
1226   1226    110          1226        0000  
1234   1234    110          1234        0000  
1323   1323    110          1323        0000  
2027   2028    100          2028        0001  
1807   2032    10000        1929        0145  
2036   2037    140          2037        0001  
2045   2046    110          2045        0001  
2054   2054    100          2054        0000  
2104   2104    100          2104        0000  
2124   2124    110          2124        0000  
2135   2135    100          2135        0000  
2139   2147    180          2142        0008  
2155   2155    100          2155        0000  
2243   2244    340          2243        0001  
2246   2248    160          2246        0002  
2255   2300    130          2256        0005  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
2246   2303    160          2246