Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 25/0816Z from Region 2371 (N12W53). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun, 27 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (28 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 710 km/s at 25/0830Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/0819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/0625Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 25/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12360 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and active to major storm levels on day three (28 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun). III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun Class M 60/60/50 Class X 20/20/10 Proton 80/95/95 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Jun 102 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 126 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 0NA/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 022/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 013/015-025/045-037/060 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/30 Minor Storm 10/40/40 Major-severe storm 01/25/25 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 35/79/79 Radio Events Observed 25 Jun 2015 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0032 0033 4000 0032 0001 0036 0036 110 0036 0000 0358 0358 200 0358 0000 0404 0404 100 0404 0000 0432 0432 170 0432 0000 0444 0444 110 0444 0000 0447 0447 730 0447 0000 0500 0501 270 0500 0001 0616 0617 270 0616 0001 0748 0749 120 0748 0001 0824 0851 1000 0829 0027 2105 2106 5300 2105 0001 2227 2227 260 2227 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 0706 0931 190 0706 ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2015 Jun 26 1005 UTC Station: GOES-13 www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
|