Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
25/0816Z from Region 2371 (N12W53). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun,
27 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 710 km/s at 25/0830Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/0819Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/0625Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7
pfu at 25/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 12360 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and active to major storm levels
on day three (28 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day
one (26 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    20/20/10
Proton     80/95/95
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 102
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun   0NA/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  022/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  013/015-025/045-037/060

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor Storm           10/40/40
Major-severe storm    01/25/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    35/79/79
Radio Events Observed 25 Jun 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0032   0033    4000         0032        0001  
0036   0036    110          0036        0000  
0358   0358    200          0358        0000  
0404   0404    100          0404        0000  
0432   0432    170          0432        0000  
0444   0444    110          0444        0000  
0447   0447    730          0447        0000  
0500   0501    270          0500        0001  
0616   0617    270          0616        0001  
0748   0749    120          0748        0001  
0824   0851    1000         0829        0027  
2105   2106    5300         2105        0001  
2227   2227    260          2227        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0706   0931    190          0706    
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2015 Jun 26 1005 UTC
Station: GOES-13
For current space weather conditions please refer to:

www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales