Startling predictions: EIA talks impact of Clean Power Plan on coal
The United States Energy Information Administration's (EIA) analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP) has revealed a startling prediction about coal production in the United States.
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Coal production, total national and regional. Click on image to enlarge. Credit: EIA |
The CPP Base Policy Case found that, by 2024, coal production is expected to fall to levels not seen in more than 40 years. However, after this fall, total production will recover gradually -- but it is not ever expected to surpass levels reached in the 1980s. According to EIA, production in the West falls most, but production levels at all major coal basins are affected.
EIA compared the CPP Base Policy Case to their Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) Reference Case, and found that Western Coal Production is 214 million tons lower in the 2024 Base Policy Case, when compared to the Reference Case -- a difference of 34 percent. However, by 2040, the Base Policy Case is only 110 million tons lower than the Reference Case, when compared to 2013 levels -- a difference of 19 percent.
The Interior Region -- which consists mainly of coal from the Illinois and Gulf-lignite Basins -- sees a difference of 103 million tons by 2024 when comparing the Base Policy Case with the Reference Case, a difference of 45 percent. However, EIA added, "After 2024, the region resumes a trend of increasing production, reaching 211 million tons in 2040 but still 88 million tons lower than projected levels without the proposed rule."
In the Appalachian region, EIA found that coal products in the Base Policy case are 46 million tons -- or 19 percent -- lower by 2024 when compared to the EIA Reference Case, which will leave total production of 200 million tons after 2024. EIA also found that "In the Reference case, the power sector is projected to be less reliant on Appalachian coal, and the proposed rule accelerates this trend. The power sector consumed about 150 million tons Appalachian coal in 2013 (excluding stocks). That consumption falls to 106 million tons in 2040 in the Reference case and to 70 million tons in the Base Policy case. Nonpower sector use and exports account for the balance of Appalachian coal production."
EIA also found that in terms of demand, the southeastern region of the United States will make up 117 million tons -- or 75 percent -- of the coal demand decline in 2040 between the Base Policy and Reference Cases.
EIA's analysis found that the Clean Power Plan would result in less coal-fired electricity generation through 2024, but from 2024 to 2040 it may see a rebound. This is due to several factors, including an increase in demand for electricity, as well as a combination of rising natural gas prices and increased renewable capacity.
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