Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
02/1931Z from Region 2290 (N22W91). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (03 Mar) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (04 Mar) and likely
to be low on day three (05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 697 km/s at 02/1231Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 02/0230Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 02/0347Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 356
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    25/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 130
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 143

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  023/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  021/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  015/020-012/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/45/40