Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed 

M4 event observed at12/1408Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
440 km/s at 12/1823Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0005Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0515Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Mar, 14
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Mar). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Mar,
14 Mar, 15 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 127
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 128/128/130
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  021/030-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           30/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/60/40

Radio Events Observed 12 Mar 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0337   0337    100          0337        0000  
0401   0401    190          0401        0000  
0411   0411    160          0411        0000  
0635   0635    110          0635        0000  
0643   0643    190          0643        0000  
1145   1145    130          1145        0000  
1218   1218    110          1218        0000  
1344   1344    1400         1344        0000  
1403   1405    2300         1404        0002  
1752   1752    100          1752        0000  
1911   1912    830          1911        0001  
1921   1921    100          1921        0000  
2009   2009    100          2009        0000  
2014   2014    380          2014        0000  
2154   2155    530          2155        0001  
2159   2200    190          2159        0001  
2239   2239    470          2239        0000  
2244   2244    200          2244        0000  
2246   2246    1000         2246        0000  
2334   2334    120          2334        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1053   1053    160          1053              
1234   1409    640          1405