Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/0911Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Mar,
25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 698 km/s at 23/0915Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/0434Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0311Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7572
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 128
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  014/020-014/018-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/15
Minor Storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/45/20

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2165
Begin Time: 2015 Mar 18 1515 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 7573 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation