Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/0021Z from Region 2305 (S08E05). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar,
29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at
26/0135Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1135Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3959 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Mar) and active to minor
storm levels on days two and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 136
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  011/015-017/025-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/60/60

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2169
Issue Time: 2015 Mar 26 1000 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2166
Begin Time: 2015 Mar 18 1515 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 5000 pfu