Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
30/0152Z from Region 2303 (N18W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
30/0253Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0126Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01
Apr, 02 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    15/25/25
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 134
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 135/145/150
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  013/015-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    30/30/10

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For March 23-29

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 23 Mar due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.

Outlook For March 30-April 5

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 30-31 Mar due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 01-05 Apr with the return of active sunspot Regions 2297 and 2302.

Radio Events Observed 30 Mar 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0656   0657    120          0656        0001  
0730   0731    140          0730        0001  
0733   0733    110          0733        0000  
1802   1802    240          1802        0000  
2131   2132    150          2131        0001  
2148   2148    140          2148        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0958   1137    240          1026              
For current space weather conditions please refer to:

www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales