Report of Solar Geophysical ActivityJoint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 30/0152Z from Region 2303 (N18W0*). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at 30/0253Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0126Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr). III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr Class M 15/25/25 Class X 01/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Mar 134 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 135/145/150 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 132 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 013/015-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 30/30/10 **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Radio Events Observed 30 Mar 2015 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0656 0657 120 0656 0001 0730 0731 140 0730 0001 0733 0733 110 0733 0000 1802 1802 240 1802 0000 2131 2132 150 2131 0001 2148 2148 140 2148 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 0958 1137 240 1026 www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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