Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
07/2222Z from Region 2297 (S17E66). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
09/1433Z from Region 2297 (S16E39). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
595 km/s at 08/2325Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2348Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/2050Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1148 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 123
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25

Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2157
Begin Time: 2015 Mar 08 1455 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1636 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Radio Events Observed 09 Mar 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0014   0014    100          0014        0000  
0120   0121    320          0121        0001  
1437   1437    130          1437        0000  
2323   2324    600          2323        0001  
2337   2355    240          2337        0018  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.