Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1811Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Mar,
07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
561 km/s at 04/2258Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1037Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1131Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1106 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar)
and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 130
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  007/008-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/40