Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/2000Z from Region 2339 (N13E47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at
06/2228Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 06/2111Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 07/1831Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10
May).

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 147
Predicted   08 May-10 May 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        07 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  021/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

Radio Events Observed 07 May 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1241   1241    6900         1241        0000  
1454   1454    250          1454        0000  
1549   1549    100          1549        0000  
1715   1715    200          1715        0000  
1723   1723    100          1723        0000  
1740   1740    120          1740        0000  
1820   1820    110          1820        0000  
1953   1954    210          1953        0001  
2312   2312    170          2312        0000  
2354   2354    100          2354        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.