Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/0731Z from Region 2339 (N11W45). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
May, 16 May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
802 km/s at 14/0105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2229Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2006Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4130 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 May), quiet to active
levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 145
Predicted   15 May-17 May 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        14 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  025/041
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  010/012-010/010-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/35/45
Radio Events Observed 14 May 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0213   0213    160          0213        0000  
0237   0238    300          0238        0001  
0341   0341    250          0341        0000  
0356   0356    730          0356        0000  
0519   0519    230          0519        0000  
0626   0626    280          0626        0000  
0728   0730    1900         0729        0002  
1207   1207    200          1207        0000  
1254   1256    2300         1256        0002  
0859   0900    320          0859        0001  
1747   1748    700          1747        0001  
2112   2112    310          2112        0000  
2206   2207    370          2207        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:

www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm