Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/2131Z from Region 2356 (S15E75). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 383 km/s at
28/0316Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/1959Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/2036Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 May) and quiet levels on day three (31 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 May 093
Predicted   29 May-31 May 090/095/100
90 Day Mean        28 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/10