Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1752Z from Region 2443 (N07E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 31/0905Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2116Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/2048Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (02 Nov) and active to major storm levels
on day three (03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 119
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  008/008-036/065-033/050

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           05/35/40
Major-severe storm    01/40/30
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/01/05
Minor Storm           30/10/10
Major-severe storm    20/90/85

Radio Events Observed 31 Oct 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0536   0536    100          0536        0000  
0930   0930    100          0930        0000  
1011   1011    150          1011        0000  
1422   1422    320          1422        0000  
1651   1651    110          1651        0000  
1659   1659    140          1659        0000  
2233   2233    130          2233        0000  
2321   2321    140          2321        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #15-44 2015 November 1 at 5:27 p.m. MST (2015 November 2 0027 UTC) **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For October 26-November 1 R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 31 October from flare activity from active Region 2443. Outlook For November 2-8 R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely through the outlook period due to potential flare activity from active Region 2443 and the return of old active Region 2434 on 07 November. G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm are likely on 02-03 November while G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 November. This activity is likely in response to a recurrent, trans-equatorial coronal hole high speed anticipated to become geoeffective early to midday on 02 November. Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov