Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
09/1312Z from Region 2449 (S11E32). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov,
12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 634 km/s at 09/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/1926Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1448Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17885
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 108
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  015/020-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/25/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/30/20

Radio Events Observed 09 Nov 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1303   1330    1900         1317        0027  
1345   1346    140          1346        0001  
1349   1351    120          1349        0002  
1442   1450    170          1448        0008  
1455   1519    330          1507        0024  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2271
Begin Time: 2015 Nov 04 1405 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 17885 pfu