Report of Solar Geophysical Activity


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov,
28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 291 km/s at
26/0736Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/1921Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 418 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Nov, 28 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (29 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 104
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/10
For current space weather conditions please refer to: