Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
01/1310Z from Region 2422 (S17W69). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (02 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (03 Oct)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
380 km/s at 01/1719Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/1452Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1644Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (02
Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    70/65/50
Class X    25/20/15
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 120
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 120/115/105
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  016/024-016/028-025/040

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/50/65

Radio Events Observed 01 Oct 2015
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0241   0242    270          0241        0001  
0249   0249    150          0249        0000  
0254   0254    100          0254        0000  
0137   0138    280          0137        0001  
0713   0714    120          0714        0001  
2139   2139    100          2139        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0258   0310    110          0258