Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07
Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 504 km/s at 05/0434Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/2139Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0458Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1899
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Oct) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 083
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  016/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  009/008-012/014-025/036

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor Storm           05/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/35/65

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #15-40
2015 October 5 at 12:16 a.m. MDT (2015 October 5 0616 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For September 28-October 4

R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts were observed on 28 Sep and 02 Oct.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 04 Oct.

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms were observed.


Outlook For October 5-11

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Oct.

No R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are expected.

No S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected.