Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
11/2229Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct,
14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 580 km/s at 12/2029Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1935Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1632Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34918
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Oct), unsettled to active
levels on day two (14 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (15 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 089
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 090/095/095
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  013/015-015/018-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor Storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/55/60