Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/1838Z from Region 2434 (S10E48). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct,
18 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
523 km/s at 15/0730Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1611Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1619Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    30/40/40
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 107
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 105/110/120
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  016/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  014/018-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/20

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For October 5-11

G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms were observed on 07 Oct.  
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms were observed on 07-08 Oct.
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 05, 07-08 Oct.

No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts were observed.

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms were observed.

Outlook For October 12-18

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 12, 15-16 Oct.

No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services 
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More 
information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov